Approximately 110,500 residential units are projected for delivery in 2026, though historical completion rates suggest actual deliveries may range between 33,000 and 50,000 units
Dubai’s residential real estate market concluded 2025 with record-breaking figures, as transaction volumes surpassed 200,000 and total values reached AED541.5 billion. Both off-plan and ready property segments outperformed 2024 levels, supported by robust investor appetite, strong end-user demand and a steady stream of new project launches.
110,500 residential units set for delivery in 2026
Off-plan transactions accounted for 72.9 percent of total real estate activity in Dubai, up from 69.3 percent in 2024, reflecting the market’s increasing focus on future developments. While this trend has driven growth, it has also created concentration risks, as the market has become heavily reliant on continued launch momentum and sustained buyer sentiment.
At the same time, supply dynamics are becoming more prominent. Around 40,400 residential units were completed in 2025, below the initial projection of 82,600 units, resulting in a materialization rate of 48.9 percent.
Even though total completions were below projections, the 2025 figure was 16.4 percent higher compared with the 34,700 units delivered in 2024. Looking ahead, approximately 110,500 residential units are projected for delivery in 2026, though historical completion rates suggest actual deliveries may range between 33,000 and 50,000 units.
Despite these emerging trends, the broader macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals remain supportive. UAE GDP growth is projected at 5.2 percent in 2026, with Dubai expected to expand by 4.5 percent, supported by ongoing infrastructure investment, population growth, and sustained tourism momentum. These factors are expected to continue supporting demand across housing, retail and commercial sectors, providing a buffer against potential external headwinds such as global trade tensions or volatility in financial and energy markets.
Off-plan and ready segments surpass 2024 transaction records
Dubai’s residential real estate market maintained its upward momentum in 2025, with both the off-plan and ready segments surpassing their 2024 transaction records. The market recorded over 200,000 sales transactions during the year, marking an 18.8 percent increase in volume compared to 2024.
The off-plan segment was the primary driver of growth, with transaction volumes reaching 146,400 units, representing a 25 percent year-on-year increase. This performance was driven by a series of new project launches during the year, reflecting developer confidence and continued investor appetite for future developments. With the off-plan segment accounting for the majority of the growth, the market remains heavily reliant on future project delivery and investor sentiment, making it potentially vulnerable to shifts in demand or market conditions.
In contrast, ready property sales recorded more modest but steady growth, with volumes reaching 54,400 transactions, up 5 percent compared to 2024, supported by stable demand from end-users and investors seeking immediate occupancy or rental income opportunities. While transaction volumes dipped slightly in Q3 2025, activity rebounded in Q4, indicating that demand for ready properties remained resilient across Dubai’s real estate market.
Dubai’s luxury segment sees strong growth
Dubai’s luxury real estate segment recorded approximately 2,500 transactions in 2025, marking a 47.1 percent increase in transaction volumes compared to the previous year.
While both off-plan and ready property segments demonstrated growth, off-plan sales led with a 52.6 percent year-on-year increase, accounting for 70.5 percent of all luxury transactions.
The surge in demand was supported by a combination of attractive lifestyle and fiscal advantages provided by the city, including safety and political stability, a favourable tax environment, strategic connectivity, high-quality infrastructure and investor-friendly visa programs.
The ultra-luxury segment, though niche, also exhibited robust performance in 2025 with 302 transactions totaling AED27.9 billion, representing increases of 31.9 percent in transaction volume and 53.7 percent in value compared to 2024. This momentum highlights the growing preference among HNWIs and UHNWIs for Dubai as both a residential and investment destination.
2026 deliveries to range between 33,000 and 50,000 units
Around 110,500 residential units are projected for delivery in 2026, with the last quarter expected to account for the highest concentration of project completions. However, based on historical trends, actual deliveries in 2026 are likely to be lower, ranging between 33,000 and 50,000 units, with some of the projected supply potentially spilling over into 2027.
Looking further ahead, approximately 133,300 units are anticipated to enter the Dubai real estate market in 2027, followed by 101,500 units in 2028.
Apartments are expected to dominate the upcoming completions, representing 84.3 percent of projected units through 2028, while townhouses and villas make up the remainder. Key locations, including Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, Business Bay, Dubai Residence Complex and DAMAC Lagoons, are forecast to contribute the largest share of supply, collectively accounting for 30.7 percent of all projected deliveries during this period.
Market enters more balanced phase
Looking ahead, Dubai’s real estate market is expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, supported by strong economic fundamentals, continued population expansion and ongoing infrastructure investment. Tourism is projected to maintain momentum with visitor volumes expected to surpass prior-year levels, while business activity indicators remain positive.
However, the market is entering a critical transition phase where supply pressures, moderating growth trajectories and potential external headwinds require heightened vigilance. While a sharp correction appears unlikely given Dubai’s solid macroeconomic foundation, diversified economy and sustained population growth, stakeholders in the market should prepare for a more balanced environment characterized by moderate appreciation and heightened selectivity.
Careful monitoring of actual completion volumes, off-plan resale activity trends, price performance in high-supply locations and rental growth trajectories will be essential for identifying early warning signals.
Stay tuned as this line continues to rise from blueprint to bustling reality — and get ready to explore Dubai with even greater ease in the years ahead!
News Source https://economymiddleeast.com/news/dubai-real-estate-residential-prices-rise-12-1-percent-amid-population-growth-sustained-tourism-momentum-in-2025/
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